Why don't we do things on time?
"I'll be there within 2 minutes." It takes 30 minutes to get there!
"Sure. Give me an hour and I'll send the report." You send the report after 2 days!
"Let me get back to you within the day." It takes one week to send that update!
If you have ever missed a deadline, planning fallacy can be the culprit.
The concept of the planning fallacy was first proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979.
When we plan something, we tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete it. This can happen even if we have previously completed the same task. We may assume that it only takes 10 minutes to get to a restaurant, but it actually takes 45 minutes!
Here's an example of how this affects my to-do list:
To-do list (morning)
Shoot a YouTube video
Market the workshop
Social media marketing
Reply Dave
Check on the order
Transfer money
Post something on Instagram
Collect check
To-do list (evening)
Shoot a YouTube video
Market the workshopSocial media marketing
Reply DaveCheck on the order
Transfer money
Post something on InstagramCollect check
The planning fallacy is often attributed to the optimism bias. This is the tendency to be overly optimistic about our ability to get things done. I want to finish all 8 tasks. I'm optimistic about it. But in reality, each task takes more time than I estimated. In the end, I never finish my to-do list. Ever.
Here are some suggestions to beat the planning fallacy and optimism bias in the future.
Multiply your first estimate: When estimating the time to reach a destination, multiply it by 2 or 3 times. (or use Google Maps!)
Record and improve: Keep track of the average time taken to complete routine tasks, to avoid making overly optimistic guesses in the future.
Shorten your to-do list: Limit your daily to-do list to one important task to avoid feeling overwhelmed and frustrated.
By shifting your perspective and limiting your daily tasks to 1-3, you can reduce the impact of the Planning Fallacy and Optimism Bias over time with knowledge, self-awareness, and training.
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